While rummaging through my Papers, I came across this article that I had written in 1998 and I thought I must share it.
The Diwali lights were still lit, but the shimmer was missing, the crackers were burning, but the sound was muffled. The “Muhurat Trading” was on but the excitement & fervour was clearly missing.
All in all, a very dull start to Samvat year 2055, was witnessed on Monday. The usual enthusiasm had clearly taken a back seat. Hoards of Brokers, with family in tow, were seen exchanging greetings on Dalal Street. The Muhurat tip was – “Go long on Onions & short on Shares”
The Sensex opened at 2855 and closed after an hour of trading at 2845, a loss of 8 points. The NSE was on upto 7.30 (i.e. one hour more than the BSE) and markets fell further. Truly a lacklustre Muhurat Trading session.
Tuesday saw the Sensex slip by another 90 points and it closed at 2764.16. This was partly due to continued selling by the FII’s and also end account considerations on the NSE. Vloumes were low due to looming holidays on the BSE. (Both Wednesday & Thursday the BSE was closed and NSE was closed only on Wednesday)
Thursday, was the first day of the new settlement on the NSE and markets saw some buying on counters like RIL, SBI, Tisco & Telco. Hectic selling was witnessed on HLL. By late Thursay evening the murmurings of buy-back was heard and the press reports on Friday only confirmed the same.
On Friday, both the NSE & BSE saw good all round buying as the Bears scurried for cover and the Bulls took charge. The Sensex closed at 2784 (+27 points). The Kerb rates were firm and continued to rise over the weekend. SBI posted results which were largely ignored.
On Monday the markets spurred by the buy back saw a rally of 105 points. The focus had now shifted firmly away form Unit 64 to the buy back euphoria.
Tuesday the markets held out the rally of the previous day and closed with a net gain of 6 points at 2895.
The outlook for the rest of the week depends largely on the market movements on Wednesday. One can expect bouts of selling as the markets have moved up but the ground realities have not changed significantly. The markets are expected to be range bound with a downside of 2750, where fresh entry may be considered.